Fresco

350 Fifth Avenue · Penn Plaza / Garment · 2,709,234 SF · Built 1931
Underwriting as of 30 Jun 2026 · CoStar 2 Sep 2026 · ESRT Q2-26 supplemental · Built 9 Sep 2026
Occupancy88.7%as of 30 Jun 2026
Value$2.27B
Per SF$837
Direct cap rate6.75%
Map
Assumptions
Comparables
Cash Flows
Rent Roll
Returns & Sensitivity
Photos

Underwriting drivers2 Sep 2026base against downside

fxEmpire State Building 9.2.26 BB.xlsxhardcoded inputderived by the model
ABCDE
AssumptionBaseDownsideΔBasis
Income & occupancy
1Market rent, building blend$77.00$77.00·CoStar prices the building at $69-85/MG. Struck at the midpoint and tiered by floor.
2In-place rent, blended$68.31$68.31·ESRT: $72.89 per occupied SF including reimbursements, shown net of a 6% recovery allowance. Six anchors at disclosed rents; the balance tier-modelled and scaled by k = 0.844 to tie to ESRT.
3Rent growth2.00%0.00%−200 bpSubmarket asking rent is compounding ~2.0% a year through 2028.
4In-place occupancy88.7%88.7%·ESRT: 2,403,091 of 2,709,234 SF commenced at June 30, 2026; 96.7% leased.
5Stabilised occupancy94%88%−6 ptsSubmarket vacancy has fallen 14.0% to 10.8% in four quarters.
6Renewal probability70%50%−20 ptsPortfolio is 94.8% leased with 17.8% blended positive spreads.
7Observatory net income$55,000,000$55,000,000·ESRT 2026 guidance. Carried NET in Other Income and capped at the office rate.
8Operating expenses, year 1$100,760,696$100,760,696·Per-SF estimates; ESRT does not disclose property-level opex. Cross-check: same-store office opex ratio 50.3% of revenue in Q2-26.
Capitalisation & return
9Going-in capitalisation rate6.75%6.75%·CoStar's modelled market rate 6.00% plus 75 bp. The tape's own clears imply near 10%, but those are value-add assets.
10Exit capitalisation rate5.75%6.75%+100 bpMarket cap is forecast to tighten to 5.83% by 2027 Q4.
11Discount rate7.00%8.00%+100 bpManhattan trophy, well leased.
12Selling costs at exit2.0%2.0%··
Capital, timing & basis
13Capital expenditure reserve$0.75$0.85+$0.10Pre-war tower under modernisation.
14Hold period10 yrs10 yrs··
15Office net rentable area2,709,234 SF2,709,234 SF·Of 2,958,981 SF total RBA; the balance is observatory, broadcast and back-of-house.
hardcoded inputderived by the model
  1. Income & occupancy
  2. Market rent, building blend$77.00base$77.00downsideLeaseComps!K30
  3. In-place rent, blended$68.31base$68.31downsideRentRoll!K57
  4. Rent growth2.00%base0.00%downsideDCF!C13
  5. In-place occupancy88.7%base88.7%downsideOpStmt!C8
  6. Stabilised occupancy94%base88%downsideDCF!C29
  7. Renewal probability70%base50%downsideDCF!C15
  8. Observatory net income$55,000,000base$55,000,000downsideOpStmt!C16
  9. Operating expenses, year 1$100,760,696base$100,760,696downsideOpStmt!C31
  10. Capitalisation & return
  11. Going-in capitalisation rate6.75%base6.75%downsideDirectCap!C9
  12. Exit capitalisation rate5.75%base6.75%downsideDCF!C21
  13. Discount rate7.00%base8.00%downsideDCF!C20
  14. Selling costs at exit2.0%base2.0%downsideDCF!C22
  15. Capital, timing & basis
  16. Capital expenditure reserve$0.75base$0.85downsideDCF!C14
  17. Hold period10 yrsbase10 yrsdownsideDCF!C24
  18. Office net rentable area2,709,234 SFbase2,709,234 SFdownsideSummary!C17

Source: six anchors at ESRT rent, three at CoStar rent, balance tier-modelled, k = 0.844 to ESRT's $174.0MM; opex per SF, Class A norms.

Value leversConvex means the good side pays more than the bad side costs. Every point is a full model re-run.concluded value $2.27Bone step each wayranked by swingbars to one scale, widest $132Mcharts ±$300M

35% direct cap, 65% DCF
1
Rent growthDCF!C13
convex
−$122M/+$132Mone step of ±100 bp each way

Convexity +$20M over two steps: the good side pays 17% more than the bad side costs (+$275M against −$235M).

2
Rent level, every leaseRentRoll!K57
linear
−$120M/+$120Mone step of ±5% each way

Linear: +$241M either way over two steps, no convexity.

3
Other income (Observatory, retail, broadcast)OpStmt!C16
linear
−$99M/+$99Mone step of ±10% each way

Linear: +$198M either way over two steps, no convexity.

4
Exit capitalisation rateDCF!C21
convex
−$75M/+$90Mone step of ±50 bp each way

Convexity +$29M over two steps: the good side pays 42% more than the bad side costs (+$198M against −$139M).

5
Operating expensesOpStmt!C31
linear
−$82M/+$82Mone step of ±5% each way

Linear: +$165M either way over two steps, no convexity.

6
Discount rateDCF!C20
convex
−$57M/+$60Mone step of ±50 bp each way

Convexity +$6M over two steps: the good side pays 10% more than the bad side costs (+$123M against −$112M).

Market leasing assumptionsTerms a new lease and a renewal are underwritten on: rent, term, tenant improvements, free rent and downtime.Lease-Up C32:C38DCF C15:C18 and C42:C44Lease Comps I30, L30, M30

Retail / concourse14,864 SF
5th Avenue frontage
Market rent$150.15
Share of let area
0.8%
Low rise854,602 SF
Floors 2-20
Market rent$69.00
Share of let area
43.9%
Mid rise532,706 SF
Floors 21-45
Market rent$77.00
Share of let area
27.3%
High rise426,199 SF
Floors 46-65
Market rent$83.00
Share of let area
21.9%
Tower120,273 SF
Floors 66-80
Market rent$88.00
Share of let area
6.2%
New leasesvacant and lease-up space
Market rent, lease-up space$71.72per SF, weighted lease compsDCF (Base)!C36Lease Comps!K30, the weighted effective rent. Rents by floor tier are the cards above.
Lease term11.0 yrsweighted average, ten in-building compsLease Comps!I30modelledThe model has no new-lease term input, so the comps carry it. Confirmed by the Fresco desk, 6 Sep 2026.
TI allowance$107.50per SF, new leasesDCF (Base)!C42Lease Comps!M30. Lease-Up!C38 carries $15.4MM in total.
Free rent9.25 momonths, new leasesDCF (Base)!C44Lease Comps!L30, the weighted concession.
Leasing commissions6.0%of total rent, new leasesDCF (Base)!C43Lease-Up!C35 carries the same rate.
Downtime24 momonths to lease up 143,589 SFLease-Up!C33The vacant block is absorbed over this period, not on day one.
Renewalsexpiring leases that stay
Renewal probability70%50% downsideof expiring SFDCF (Base)!C15The downside book renews 50% of expiring SF against 70% in the base.
Renewal TI allowance$53.75per SF, renewalsDCF (Base)!C16desk noteModelled as =C42×0.5 in dollars per SF. A desk assumption, not a quoted renewal package.
Renewal commissions2.0%of total rent, renewalsDCF (Base)!C17One third of the new-lease rate in DCF (Base)!C43.
Renewal free rent1 momonths, renewalsDCF (Base)!C18One month against 9.25 on a new lease.

Financing assumptionsLoan sized once off the purchase price and held constant in every case.

Debt terms
Purchase price$2382.3MM$879.33 / SF
Loan to value55%senior mortgage
Loan amount$1310.3MM$483.63 / SF
Equity incl. fee$1085.1MM$400.54 / SF
Coupon6.25%interest only
Term10 yearsmatched to the hold
Annual debt service$81.9MMno amortisation
Year 1 debt yield10.5%on year 1 NOI
Year 1 coverage1.68xNOI basis
Origination fee1.00%$13.1MM paid at entry

Sale comparables

Range $230 to $556 / SFMedian $409Weighted $354.61 / SFBand 80% of median, far beyond the 20% guideline, so the approach carries zero weight
1441 Broadway20%
$4301441 BroadwayPenn Plaza/Garment · 554,308 SF
$4301441 BroadwayJul 2026 · 0.4 mi · 20% weight
JUL 2026
Buyer60 Guilders, LLC + Sentry Realty
SellerL.H. Charney Associates
LocationComparableQualityInferior
1375 Broadway20%
$3331375 BroadwayPenn Plaza/Garment · 511,006 SF
$3331375 BroadwayDec 2024 · 0.26 mi · 20% weight
DEC 2024
BuyerAmerican Exchange Group
SellerSavanna Real Estate Fund
LocationComparableQualityInferior
2 Park Avenue15%
$3022 Park AvenueMurray Hill · 1,182,707 SF
$3022 Park AvenueDec 2024 · 0.25 mi · 15% weight
DEC 2024
BuyerHaddad Brands
SellerMorgan Stanley & Co. LLC
LocationComparableQualityInferior
1345 Avenue of the Americas15%
$3241345 Avenue of the AmericasMidtown · 1,987,110 SF
$3241345 Avenue of the AmericasJun 2025 · 1.05 mi · 15% weight
JUN 2025
BuyerFisher Brothers Management Co. LLC + Blackstone Inc.
SellerJ.P. Morgan Asset Management + Fisher Brothers Management Co. LLC
LocationSuperiorQualityComparable
100 Park Avenue15%
$230100 Park AvenueGrand Central · 907,000 SF
$230100 Park AvenueJan 2026 · 0.41 mi · 15% weight
JAN 2026
BuyerRockpoint
SellerSL Green Realty Corp.
LocationSuperiorQualityInferior
1177 Avenue of the Americas5%
$5561177 Avenue of the AmericasMidtown · 1,030,000 SF
$5561177 Avenue of the AmericasSep 2025 · 0.57 mi · 5% weight
SEP 2025
BuyerNorges Bank Investment Management + Beacon Capital Partners
SellerCalSTRS + Silverstein Properties
LocationSuperiorQualitySuperior
140 E 45th Street5%
$409140 E 45th StreetGrand Central · 667,260 SF
$409140 E 45th StreetDec 2025 · 0.58 mi · 5% weight
DEC 2025
BuyerSovereign Partners
SellerHarrison Street Asset Management
LocationSuperiorQualityInferior
250 W 57th Street5%
$508250 W 57th StreetColumbus Circle · 541,311 SF
$508250 W 57th StreetJun 2026 · 1.25 mi · 5% weight
JUN 2026
BuyerNamdar Realty Group
SellerEmpire State Realty Trust, Inc.
LocationComparableQualityInferior
522 Fifth Avenuenot weightedOwner User
$760522 Fifth AvenueMidtown · 600,000 SF
$760522 Fifth AvenueMay 2025 · 0.53 mi · reference
MAY 2025
BuyerAmazon
SellerRFR Realty LLC
LocationSuperiorQualityComparable
590 Madison Avenuenot weighted
$1,029590 Madison AvenuePlaza District · 1,049,759 SF
$1,029590 Madison AvenueAug 2025 · 1.21 mi · reference
AUG 2025
BuyerRXR + 2 others
SellerSTRS Ohio CA Real Estate
LocationSuperiorQualitySuperior

Location and asset quality flags are this desk's read of the sheet, confirmed by the Fresco desk, 6 Sep 2026.

Where the subject pricesBubble area is weight; the subject sits beyond the tape's largest trade.

$250
$500
$750
$1000
0.5M SF
1.0M SF
1.5M SF
2.0M SF
2.5M SF
Concluded $837 / SF
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ESB
Building size →Price per square foot ↑

Sale tape from the CoStar comparable-sales export, screened before weighting: allocated portfolio prints, partial-interest trades and distressed or land-basis prices are excluded rather than down-weighted.

Lease comparablesLeft dot face rent, right dot net effective after free rent.

Weighted face $78.05Weighted effective $71.729.2 months free$108 TI
United Talent Agency32nd-35th · 100,948 SF$86$91.20−$4.75face $91.20 · net $86.45
Kearney78th-79th · 27,866 SF$77$83.60−$6.33face $83.60 · net $77.27
Evommune52nd · 4,686 SF$75$83.00−$8.30face $83.00 · net $74.70
Newcleo48th · 3,144 SF$62$83.00−$20.75face $83.00 · net $62.25
Mott MacDonald40th · 25,372 SF$71$77.00−$6.42face $77.00 · net $70.58
Elsberg Baker & Maruri38th · 39,237 SF$70$77.00−$7.33face $77.00 · net $69.67
BIG EAST Conference45th · 7,882 SF$71$77.00−$5.78face $77.00 · net $71.22
Alpha Star Research46th · 3,439 SF$64$71.18−$7.12face $71.18 · net $64.06
GNY Insurance Companies7th · 52,116 SF$65$69.00−$4.06face $69.00 · net $64.94
STV10th · 51,971 SF$65$69.00−$4.31face $69.00 · net $64.69
$60$70$80$90
net effectiveface rent

Concession structure

3 mo
6 mo
9 mo
12 mo
$40
$70
$100
$130
Tenant improvement allowance →Months free ↑
LowMidHighTowerBubble size is leased area

In-building leases from the CoStar tenant record; starting rents at the floor-tier schedule, no contract rents published.

Reporting studio

Turn this analysis into your next presentation.

Valuation conclusions2 Sep 2026Direct Cap 35%DCF 65%

Concluded value
$2.27B
$837/SF6.06% impliedBase case
Direct Cap
$2.03B
$751/SF6.75% going-in35% weight
DCF (Base)
$2.39B
$883/SF65% weightLeads
DCF (Downside)
$1.44B
$533/SFStress case0% weight
Approach weighting
35%Direct Cap$2,034,034,128 · $751/SF
65%DCF (Base)$2,392,605,972 · $883/SF
Concluded value$2,267,105,826$836.81 / SFimplied 6.06% on year-1 NOI
Sale Comparison $379/SF: WEAK, carried at 0% weightDirect Cap and DCF are 14.9% apart, inside the 15% gate

Base case proforma10-yr hold from 20262,709,234 SF

Base case proformaYr 12026Yr 22027Yr 32028Yr 42029Yr 52030Yr 62031Yr 72032Yr 82033Yr 92034Yr 102035Yr 1 to 10total
Operating metrics
Occupancy88.7%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%·
Occupied square feet2,403,0912,546,6802,546,6802,546,6802,546,6802,546,6802,546,6802,546,6802,546,6802,546,680·
In-place rent, $/SF$68.31$69.68$71.07$72.49$73.94$75.42$76.93$78.47$80.04$81.64·
Revenue
Base rent$164,158,025$177,953,611$181,795,455$185,549,603$189,502,376$193,337,063$197,258,103$201,257,946$205,548,017$209,778,542$1,906,138,741
Expense reimbursements$9,849,482$10,677,217$10,907,728$11,132,977$11,370,143$11,600,224$11,835,487$12,075,477$12,332,882$12,586,713$114,368,330
Other income + net observatory$65,737,152$66,639,486$66,890,771$67,136,320$67,394,860$67,645,677$67,902,143$68,163,762$68,444,364$68,721,072$674,675,607
Commercial EGI + net observatory$238,103,079$253,490,778$257,775,999$261,963,404$266,372,357$270,649,594$275,023,152$279,484,606$284,269,784$288,988,542$2,676,121,294
Operating expenses
Variable expenses$40,242,141$43,624,028$44,565,828$45,486,130$46,455,124$47,395,169$48,356,383$49,336,916$50,388,595$51,425,678$467,275,992
Fixed expenses$55,037,047$56,137,788$57,260,544$58,405,755$59,573,870$60,765,347$61,980,654$63,220,267$64,484,672$65,774,366$602,640,309
Management fee$5,481,508$5,942,165$6,070,451$6,195,808$6,327,798$6,455,844$6,586,774$6,720,336$6,863,588$7,004,853$63,649,126
Total operating expenses$100,760,696$105,703,981$107,896,823$110,087,693$112,356,791$114,616,360$116,923,812$119,277,518$121,736,856$124,204,896$1,133,565,427
Operating expense ratio42.3%41.7%41.9%42.0%42.2%42.3%42.5%42.7%42.8%43.0%·
Net operating income$137,342,383$147,786,796$149,879,176$151,875,711$154,015,565$156,033,234$158,099,340$160,207,087$162,532,927$164,783,646$1,542,555,867
Capital and leasing
Capital expenditure reserve$2,031,926$2,031,926$2,031,926$2,031,926$2,031,926$2,031,926$2,031,926$2,031,926$2,031,926$2,031,926$20,319,255
Leasing capital, TI and commissions$3,353,031$22,466,817$24,781,523$10,209,989$20,572,696$3,742,989$4,487,142$4,453,590$21,267,587$9,462,095$124,797,459
Free rent abatement$283,145$8,261,721$5,687,074$2,378,012$4,862,679$897,772$1,092,062$1,099,726$5,327,894$2,404,662$32,294,746
Net cash flow$131,674,281$115,026,333$117,378,654$137,255,784$126,548,266$149,360,548$150,488,211$152,621,846$133,905,521$150,884,964$1,365,144,407
Reversion at exit, net of selling costs·········$2,845,908,393$2,845,908,393
Total cash flow for valuation$131,674,281$115,026,333$117,378,654$137,255,784$126,548,266$149,360,548$150,488,211$152,621,846$133,905,521$2,996,793,357$4,211,052,800
  1. Base case proformaYr 12026Yr 102035TotalYr 1 to 10
  2. Operating metrics
  3. Occupancy88.7%94.0%·
  4. Occupied square feet2,403,0912,546,680·
  5. In-place rent, $/SF$68.31$81.64·
  6. Revenue
  7. Base rent$164.2MM$209.8MM$1906.1MM
  8. Expense reimbursements$9.8MM$12.6MM$114.4MM
  9. Other income + net observatory$65.7MM$68.7MM$674.7MM
  10. Commercial EGI + net observatory$238.1MM$289.0MM$2676.1MM
  11. Operating expenses
  12. Variable expenses$40.2MM$51.4MM$467.3MM
  13. Fixed expenses$55.0MM$65.8MM$602.6MM
  14. Management fee$5.5MM$7.0MM$63.6MM
  15. Total operating expenses$100.8MM$124.2MM$1133.6MM
  16. Operating expense ratio42.3%43.0%·
  17. Net operating income$137.3MM$164.8MM$1542.6MM
  18. Capital and leasing
  19. Capital expenditure reserve$2.0MM$2.0MM$20.3MM
  20. Leasing capital, TI and commissions$3.4MM$9.5MM$124.8MM
  21. Free rent abatement$0.3MM$2.4MM$32.3MM
  22. Net cash flow$131.7MM$150.9MM$1365.1MM
  23. Reversion at exit, net of selling costs·$2845.9MM$2845.9MM
  24. Total cash flow for valuation$131.7MM$2996.8MM$4211.1MM
Discount rate7.00%
Exit capitalisation rate5.75%
Selling costs at exit2.0%
Hold period10 years
Rent growth2.00%
Stabilised occupancy94%
Terminal value at exit$2,845,908,393
Base DCF value$2,392,605,972$883.13 / SF · 65% weight

Downside proforma0% growth88% stabilised6.75% exit

Downside proformaYr 12026Yr 22027Yr 32028Yr 42029Yr 52030Yr 62031Yr 72032Yr 82033Yr 92034Yr 102035Yr 1 to 10total
Operating metrics
Occupancy88.7%88.4%88.0%88.0%88.0%88.0%88.0%88.0%88.0%88.0%·
Occupied square feet2,403,0912,393,6082,384,1262,384,1262,384,1262,384,1262,384,1262,384,1262,384,1262,384,126·
In-place rent, $/SF$68.31$68.31$68.31$68.31$68.31$68.31$68.31$68.31$68.31$68.31·
Revenue
Base rent$164,158,025$163,510,261$163,283,155$163,468,854$163,841,134$163,908,519$163,988,880$164,068,217$164,445,051$164,611,794$1,639,283,890
Expense reimbursements$9,849,482$9,810,616$9,796,990$9,808,132$9,830,469$9,834,512$9,839,333$9,844,094$9,866,704$9,876,708$98,357,038
Other income + net observatory$56,881,152$56,838,783$56,823,929$56,836,075$56,860,425$56,864,832$56,870,089$56,875,278$56,899,926$56,910,832$568,661,321
Commercial EGI + net observatory$229,247,079$228,524,559$228,271,242$228,478,372$228,893,617$228,968,778$229,058,413$229,146,907$229,567,230$229,753,217$2,289,909,413
Operating expenses
Variable expenses$40,242,141$40,083,346$40,027,673$40,073,196$40,164,458$40,180,976$40,200,676$40,220,125$40,312,503$40,353,379$401,858,474
Fixed expenses$55,037,047$56,688,158$58,388,803$60,140,467$61,944,681$63,803,022$65,717,112$67,688,626$69,719,285$71,810,863$630,938,064
Management fee$5,481,508$5,459,878$5,452,295$5,458,495$5,470,927$5,473,177$5,475,860$5,478,509$5,491,092$5,496,660$54,738,401
Total operating expenses$100,760,696$102,231,383$103,868,771$105,672,158$107,580,065$109,457,175$111,393,649$113,387,260$115,522,880$117,660,902$1,087,534,939
Operating expense ratio44.0%44.7%45.5%46.3%47.0%47.8%48.6%49.5%50.3%51.2%·
Net operating income$128,486,383$126,293,176$124,402,471$122,806,214$121,313,552$119,511,604$117,664,764$115,759,646$114,044,350$112,092,314$1,202,374,474
Capital and leasing
Capital expenditure reserve$2,302,849$2,302,849$2,302,849$2,302,849$2,302,849$2,302,849$2,302,849$2,302,849$2,302,849$2,302,849$23,028,489
Leasing capital, TI and commissions$2,395,022$264,593$27,530,426$11,871,112$23,798,671$4,307,674$5,137,171$5,071,787$24,089,736$10,659,340$115,125,532
Free rent abatement$202,247$22,343$7,577,673$3,321,334$6,658,460$1,205,213$1,437,292$1,418,999$6,739,895$2,982,301$31,565,757
Net cash flow$123,586,265$123,703,390$86,991,524$105,310,919$88,553,571$111,695,868$108,787,453$106,966,011$80,911,870$96,147,825$1,032,654,696
Reversion at exit, net of selling costs·········$1,596,136,722$1,596,136,722
Total cash flow for valuation$123,586,265$123,703,390$86,991,524$105,310,919$88,553,571$111,695,868$108,787,453$106,966,011$80,911,870$1,692,284,547$2,628,791,418
  1. Downside proformaYr 12026Yr 102035TotalYr 1 to 10
  2. Operating metrics
  3. Occupancy88.7%88.0%·
  4. Occupied square feet2,403,0912,384,126·
  5. In-place rent, $/SF$68.31$68.31·
  6. Revenue
  7. Base rent$164.2MM$164.6MM$1639.3MM
  8. Expense reimbursements$9.8MM$9.9MM$98.4MM
  9. Other income + net observatory$56.9MM$56.9MM$568.7MM
  10. Commercial EGI + net observatory$229.2MM$229.8MM$2289.9MM
  11. Operating expenses
  12. Variable expenses$40.2MM$40.4MM$401.9MM
  13. Fixed expenses$55.0MM$71.8MM$630.9MM
  14. Management fee$5.5MM$5.5MM$54.7MM
  15. Total operating expenses$100.8MM$117.7MM$1087.5MM
  16. Operating expense ratio44.0%51.2%·
  17. Net operating income$128.5MM$112.1MM$1202.4MM
  18. Capital and leasing
  19. Capital expenditure reserve$2.3MM$2.3MM$23.0MM
  20. Leasing capital, TI and commissions$2.4MM$10.7MM$115.1MM
  21. Free rent abatement$0.2MM$3.0MM$31.6MM
  22. Net cash flow$123.6MM$96.1MM$1032.7MM
  23. Reversion at exit, net of selling costs·$1596.1MM$1596.1MM
  24. Total cash flow for valuation$123.6MM$1692.3MM$2628.8MM
Discount rate8.00%
Exit capitalisation rate6.75%
Selling costs at exit2.0%
Hold period10 years
Rent growth0.00%
Stabilised occupancy88%
Terminal value at exit$1,596,136,722
Downside DCF value$1,443,204,310$532.70 / SF · 0% weight

Underwritten operating statement

Underwritten operating statementYear 1as underwritten$ / SFon 2,709,234 SF
Revenue
Base rent$164,158,025$60.59
Expense reimbursements$9,849,482$3.64
Storage, antenna and broadcast licences$10,737,152$3.96
Other income: observatory, net$55,000,000$20.30
Vacancy and credit loss($1,641,580)($0.61)
Commercial EGI + net observatory$238,103,079$87.89
Operating expenses
Real estate taxes$51,782,168$19.11
Insurance$3,254,879$1.20
Utilities$10,060,535$3.71
Repairs and maintenance$7,693,351$2.84
Janitorial and cleaning$6,805,656$2.51
Management fee$5,481,508$2.02
Payroll and benefits$9,172,841$3.39
General and administrative$6,509,758$2.40
Total operating expenses$100,760,696$37.19
Operating expense ratio42.3%
Net operating income$137,342,383$50.69
Capital expenditure$2,031,926$0.75
Total capital and leasing$2,031,926$0.75
Net cash flow$135,310,457$49.94

Observatory net at ESRT 2026 guidance $55.0MM; revenue $128.3MM 2025, $136.4MM 2024; Q2-26 NOI $12.4MM as visits fell 28.5%.

Stacking planPink is space with no named tenant (true vacancy 8.2%); areas spread over each tenant's listed floors on the plate curve.

Colour by
Jump
Above office NRA
Tower
High rise
Mid rise
Low rise
Retail
1023,000
Observatory, ESRT operated, decks 86 and 102: $74.0MM NOI, 12 months to Jun 2026Observatory, decks 86 and 102: $74.0MM NOI TTM
1013,000
1005,000
995,000
985,000
975,000
965,000
955,000
945,000
935,000
925,000
915,000
905,000
895,000
885,000
875,000
broadcast and antenna, floors 87 to 101: use not disclosed by floor
865,000
Observatory, ESRT operated, decks 86 and 102: $74.0MM NOI, 12 months to Jun 2026Observatory, decks 86 and 102: $74.0MM NOI TTM
855,000
845,000
835,000
825,000
815,000
805,000
floors 80 to 85: not disclosed, above the office NRA
7913,737
Kearney
7813,737
Kearney
7713,737
Smaato
vacant or not attributed
7613,737
Muñoz Engineering
Krauss Shaknes Tallentire & Messeri LLP
COVID-19 Litigation
Digital Capital Advisors
7513,737
Rocket Pharma
Turkish Airlines
vacant or not attributed
7413,737
JCDecaux North America
7313,737
JCDecaux North America
7213,737
Russo PLLC
vacant or not attributed
7113,737
vacant or not attributed
7013,737
vacant or not attributed
6913,737
Applied Value Group
HSO
Air China International Corp
6813,737
vacant or not attributed
6713,737
Unipharm, Inc.
RIRI USA
vacant or not attributed
6613,737
Booking.com
6513,737
Acronym
Zenyth Partners
Human Rights Foundation
6413,737
Licensing International
Aspiriant
EDPA
Jonathan C. Reiter Law Firm
vacant or not attributed
6313,737
Hecker Fink LLP
6213,737
Hecker Fink LLP
6113,737
Empire Valuation Consultants
Proud Moments ABA
Tru
Clifton Budd & DeMaria, LLP
6022,895
Captivate LLC
Resolution Life
5922,895
OFS
Semler Brossy
Rivera & Kaplan
Voxco
vacant or not attributed
5822,895
HNTB
HNTB - 7,850 SF tranche
5722,895
HNTB
5622,895
HNTB
HNTB - 7,850 SF tranche
5522,895
ZS
vacant or not attributed
5422,895
Corgan
vacant or not attributed
5322,895
In8bio
Development Ventures Group
Peter Lampack Agency Inc
vacant or not attributed
5222,895
Strawberry Frog
Evommune
Community Options, Inc.
alliantgroup
IHS Group
Coplan Inc
vacant or not attributed
5122,895
ZS
vacant or not attributed
5022,895
RaySearch Laboratories
vacant or not attributed
4922,895
Workday
vacant or not attributed
4822,895
Workday
Dynamic US
Newcleo
Willton Investment Management
RVK
4722,895
Fine Sheer Industries
Rystad Energy
Port53 Technologies Inc.
Dirac, Inc.
RobertDouglas
Monteverde & Associates PC
4622,895
Qlik
Lax, Neville & Intelisano, LLP
Echoing Green
Cayman Islands Department Of Tourism
Alpha Star Research
4522,895
Swedbank New York
BIG EAST Conference
Novogradac & Company LLP
vacant or not attributed
4422,895
Starbucks
vacant or not attributed
4322,895
Aprio
vacant or not attributed
4222,895
FF Venture Capital
Core Specialty
vacant or not attributed
4122,895
Funaro & Co.
vacant or not attributed
4035,106
Mott MacDonald
vacant or not attributed
3935,106
Marshall & Stevens
vacant or not attributed
3835,106
Elsberg Baker & Maruri
3735,106
Skanska
vacant or not attributed
3635,106
vacant or not attributed
3535,106
United Talent Agency
Human Rights Watch
3435,106
United Talent Agency
Human Rights Watch
3335,106
United Talent Agency
Human Rights Watch
3235,106
United Talent Agency
vacant or not attributed
3135,106
Broadriver Asset Management
Allen C. Schneider & Co., LLP
vacant or not attributed
3035,106
PMA
Brailsford & Dunlavey
vacant or not attributed
2935,106
Bulova
vacant or not attributed
2835,106
LinkedIn
vacant or not attributed
2735,106
LinkedIn
vacant or not attributed
2635,106
LinkedIn
vacant or not attributed
2535,106
LinkedIn
vacant or not attributed
2435,106
Pontera Solutions Inc.
2335,106
vacant or not attributed
2235,106
Booking.com
2135,106
Shutterstock
2054,948
LinkedIn - 20th floor lease
vacant or not attributed
1954,948
Coty Inc.
1854,948
VIZIO
vacant or not attributed
1754,948
vacant or not attributed
1654,948
LinkedIn
vacant or not attributed
1554,948
LinkedIn
vacant or not attributed
1454,948
LinkedIn
vacant or not attributed
1354,948
FDIC
vacant or not attributed
1254,948
FDIC
vacant or not attributed
1154,948
FDIC
vacant or not attributed
1054,948
STV
vacant or not attributed
954,948
vacant or not attributed
854,948
vacant or not attributed
754,948
GNY Insurance Companies
vacant or not attributed
6103,790
Centric Brands
Robert Graham
5103,790
Centric Brands
vacant or not attributed
4103,790
Centric Brands
vacant or not attributed
3103,790
LinkedIn
vacant or not attributed
2103,790
LinkedIn
vacant or not attributed
185,455
Starbucks
Chipotle Mexican Grill
Chopt
Ghirardelli
Tacombi
AT&T
FedEx
Alidoro
Observatory entrance
vacant or not attributed
Floors per CoStar; occupancy per ESRT at 30 Jun 2026: 88.7% occupied, 96.7% leased; 251,232 SF named tenancy on undisclosed floors sits in the residual.

Floors 2 to 79 modelled plates to ESRT office NRA; 80 to 102 per CoStar plan, ESRT pp. 14 and 20; no floor typed mechanical.

Tenant summary44 leases named6 reconciling linesESRT Q2-26 and CoStar

TenantFloorsSF% NRAShare of buildingBase rent$/SFStartExpiry
LinkedIn2nd, 3rd, 14th, 15th, 16th, 25th, 26th, 377,00213.92%$29,070,624$77.11Sep-2011Aug-2036
Centric Brands4th, 5th, 6th + floors not disclosed252,9299.34%$14,012,267$55.40Feb-2017Oct-2028
Coty Inc.19th + floors not disclosed157,8925.83%$9,146,684$57.93Dec-2008Jan-2030
FDIC11th, 12th, 13th119,2264.40%$7,004,528$58.75Mar-2024n/d
Shutterstock21st + floors not disclosed108,9374.02%$7,396,822$67.90Aug-2013Apr-2029
HNTB56th, 57th, 58th78,3612.89%$5,907,636$75.39Jan-2016Sep-2034
Human Rights Watch33rd, 34th, 35th71,0562.62%$4,237,780$59.64Jan-1998Nov-2026
Booking.com22nd, 66th64,5632.38%$4,835,123$74.89Feb-2025Sep-2035
Hecker Fink LLP62nd, 63rd54,3832.01%$4,340,307$79.81May-2019Apr-2034
GNY Insurance Companies7th52,1161.92%$3,061,815$58.75May-2024May-2041
STV10th51,9711.92%$3,053,296$58.75Jan-2024Jan-2040
StarbucksCNCR, GRND, MEZZ, 44th47,6401.76%$3,350,521$70.33Dec-2020Oct-2034
LinkedIn - 20th floor lease20th46,5421.72%$2,942,385$63.22Oct-2023Nov-2033
Pontera Solutions Inc.24th40,6791.50%$2,885,768$70.94May-2024Dec-2034
VIZIO18th40,6791.50%$2,563,591$63.02Jun-2020n/d
JCDecaux North America73rd, 74th39,5301.46%$3,378,234$85.46Oct-2016Mar-2031
Elsberg Baker & Maruri38th39,2371.45%$2,551,190$65.02Jan-2026Dec-2032
Workday48th, 49th39,0691.44%$2,738,346$70.09n/dn/d
Robert Graham6th36,0891.33%$2,102,545$58.26n/dn/d
Bulova29th32,7501.21%$2,363,568$72.17Jun-2014Apr-2030
ZS51st, 55th31,1291.15%$2,508,997$80.60Jun-2016n/d
Kearney78th, 79th27,8661.03%$2,329,598$83.60Jul-2025Jul-2036
Mott MacDonald40th25,3720.94%$1,657,553$65.33Jul-2025Jul-2035
Skanska37th25,0000.92%$1,869,250$74.77Sep-2008n/d
Corgan54th21,0000.78%$1,471,890$70.09n/dn/d
Aprio43rd15,3110.57%$996,899$65.11Dec-2023Nov-2030
Funaro & Co.41st14,2470.53%$1,065,248$74.77Oct-2008n/d
Captivate LLC60th13,1710.49%$923,155$70.09Apr-2026n/d
RaySearch Laboratories50th12,8070.47%$1,027,634$80.24Jun-2018May-2028
Resolution Life60th12,4390.46%$873,093$70.19Mar-2023Mar-2030
Marshall & Stevens39th11,5530.43%$863,818$74.77Apr-2016n/d
OFS59th11,0380.41%$780,276$70.69Jan-2024n/d
Acronym65th10,4410.39%$731,810$70.09n/dn/d
Fine Sheer Industries47th9,9550.37%$752,498$75.59Jan-2006Mar-2046
Strawberry Frog52nd9,0000.33%$722,160$80.24Apr-2018n/d
Swedbank New York45th7,9050.29%$530,030$67.05May-2021Feb-2032
BIG EAST Conference45th7,8820.29%$514,931$65.33Sep-2025Sep-2035
HNTB - 7,850 SF tranche56th-58th (tranche)7,8500.29%$591,812$75.39Jan-2016Jun-2027
Rystad Energy47th7,6680.28%$538,217$70.19Oct-2023n/d
Semler Brossy59th7,6680.28%$615,280$80.24Nov-2018n/d
Broadriver Asset Management31st7,1660.26%$533,365$74.43Apr-2018n/d
Rocket Pharma75th6,6840.25%$568,675$85.08Jul-2018n/d
Qlik46th6,6110.24%$527,624$79.81Nov-2019n/d
Empire Valuation Consultants61st6,6010.24%$424,444$64.30May-1998n/d
Other listed tenants (48)various162,1215.98%$11,871,795$73.23n/dn/d
Occupied office space not individually identifiedvarious173,9556.42%$11,924,943$68.55n/dn/d
Signed, not commenced - United Talent Agency32nd, 33rd, 34th, 35th100,9483.73%··Jul-2027Jun-2043
Signed, not commenced - Dynamic US48th4,0500.15%··Sep-2026n/d
Signed, not commenced - balance not identifiedvarious111,7404.12%··n/dn/d
Vacant - availablevarious89,4053.30%··n/dn/d
Total2,709,234100.0%$164,158,025$68.3150 lines
44 leases named2,067,015 SF76.3% of NRA6 reconciling lines to 2,709,234 SF
LinkedIn377,002 SF2nd, 3rd, 14th, 15th, 16th, 25th, 26th, $77.11 per SF · expires Aug-2036 · 13.92% of NRA
Centric Brands252,929 SF4th, 5th, 6th + floors not disclosed$55.40 per SF · expires Oct-2028 · 9.34% of NRA
Coty Inc.157,892 SF19th + floors not disclosed$57.93 per SF · expires Jan-2030 · 5.83% of NRA
FDIC119,226 SF11th, 12th, 13th$58.75 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 4.40% of NRA
Shutterstock108,937 SF21st + floors not disclosed$67.90 per SF · expires Apr-2029 · 4.02% of NRA
HNTB78,361 SF56th, 57th, 58th$75.39 per SF · expires Sep-2034 · 2.89% of NRA
Human Rights Watch71,056 SF33rd, 34th, 35th$59.64 per SF · expires Nov-2026 · 2.62% of NRA
Booking.com64,563 SF22nd, 66th$74.89 per SF · expires Sep-2035 · 2.38% of NRA
Hecker Fink LLP54,383 SF62nd, 63rd$79.81 per SF · expires Apr-2034 · 2.01% of NRA
GNY Insurance Companies52,116 SF7th$58.75 per SF · expires May-2041 · 1.92% of NRA
STV51,971 SF10th$58.75 per SF · expires Jan-2040 · 1.92% of NRA
Starbucks47,640 SFCNCR, GRND, MEZZ, 44th$70.33 per SF · expires Oct-2034 · 1.76% of NRA
LinkedIn - 20th floor lease46,542 SF20th$63.22 per SF · expires Nov-2033 · 1.72% of NRA
Pontera Solutions Inc.40,679 SF24th$70.94 per SF · expires Dec-2034 · 1.50% of NRA
VIZIO40,679 SF18th$63.02 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 1.50% of NRA
JCDecaux North America39,530 SF73rd, 74th$85.46 per SF · expires Mar-2031 · 1.46% of NRA
Elsberg Baker & Maruri39,237 SF38th$65.02 per SF · expires Dec-2032 · 1.45% of NRA
Workday39,069 SF48th, 49th$70.09 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 1.44% of NRA
Robert Graham36,089 SF6th$58.26 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 1.33% of NRA
Bulova32,750 SF29th$72.17 per SF · expires Apr-2030 · 1.21% of NRA
ZS31,129 SF51st, 55th$80.60 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 1.15% of NRA
Kearney27,866 SF78th, 79th$83.60 per SF · expires Jul-2036 · 1.03% of NRA
Mott MacDonald25,372 SF40th$65.33 per SF · expires Jul-2035 · 0.94% of NRA
Skanska25,000 SF37th$74.77 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 0.92% of NRA
Corgan21,000 SF54th$70.09 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 0.78% of NRA
Aprio15,311 SF43rd$65.11 per SF · expires Nov-2030 · 0.57% of NRA
Funaro & Co.14,247 SF41st$74.77 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 0.53% of NRA
Captivate LLC13,171 SF60th$70.09 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 0.49% of NRA
RaySearch Laboratories12,807 SF50th$80.24 per SF · expires May-2028 · 0.47% of NRA
Resolution Life12,439 SF60th$70.19 per SF · expires Mar-2030 · 0.46% of NRA
Marshall & Stevens11,553 SF39th$74.77 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 0.43% of NRA
OFS11,038 SF59th$70.69 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 0.41% of NRA
Acronym10,441 SF65th$70.09 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 0.39% of NRA
Fine Sheer Industries9,955 SF47th$75.59 per SF · expires Mar-2046 · 0.37% of NRA
Strawberry Frog9,000 SF52nd$80.24 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 0.33% of NRA
Swedbank New York7,905 SF45th$67.05 per SF · expires Feb-2032 · 0.29% of NRA
BIG EAST Conference7,882 SF45th$65.33 per SF · expires Sep-2035 · 0.29% of NRA
HNTB - 7,850 SF tranche7,850 SF56th-58th (tranche)$75.39 per SF · expires Jun-2027 · 0.29% of NRA
Rystad Energy7,668 SF47th$70.19 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 0.28% of NRA
Semler Brossy7,668 SF59th$80.24 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 0.28% of NRA
Broadriver Asset Management7,166 SF31st$74.43 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 0.26% of NRA
Rocket Pharma6,684 SF75th$85.08 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 0.25% of NRA
Qlik6,611 SF46th$79.81 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 0.24% of NRA
Empire Valuation Consultants6,601 SF61st$64.30 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 0.24% of NRA
Other listed tenants (48)162,121 SFvarious$73.23 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 5.98% of NRA
Occupied office space not individually identified173,955 SFvarious$68.55 per SF · expiry not disclosed · 6.42% of NRA
United Talent Agency100,948 SFsigned, not commenced32nd, 33rd, 34th, 35th$0 in place · expires Jun-2043 · 3.73% of NRA
Dynamic US4,050 SFsigned, not commenced48th$0 in place · expiry not disclosed · 0.15% of NRA
balance not identified111,740 SFsigned, not commencedvarious$0 in place · expiry not disclosed · 4.12% of NRA
Vacant - available89,405 SFvariousrent not disclosed · expiry not disclosed · 3.30% of NRA

CoStar 112 tenants, 97 rendered; six anchors per ESRT top 20; FDIC and Pontera from CoStar transactions; signed-not-commenced at $0.

Lease expirationsCumulative figures are the share of office NRA expiring by that year.

0 200K 400K 600K 800K 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% SF expiring cumulative % of NRA 71K 2026 8K 2027 266K 2028 109K 2029 218K 2030 40K 2031 47K 2032 47K 2033 221K 2034 98K 2035 519K 2036+ 760K Not dated 306K Vacant / SNC 2.6% 12.7% 24.8% 28.0% 37.9% 60.6%
25 dated lines1,642,975 SF by 2036+60.6% of NRA760,116 SF no expiry306,143 SF vacant or SNC

Lease rollover schedule

ExpiryLeasesSF expiring% of NRAShareCumulativeBase rent expiring% of base rent
Expired / MTM000.0%0.0%$00.0%
2026171,0562.6%2.6%$4,237,7802.6%
202717,8500.3%2.9%$591,8120.4%
20282265,7369.8%12.7%$15,039,9019.2%
20291108,9374.0%16.7%$7,396,8224.5%
20304218,3928.1%24.8%$13,380,2448.2%
2031139,5301.5%26.3%$3,378,2342.1%
2032247,1421.7%28.0%$3,081,2201.9%
2033146,5421.7%29.7%$2,942,3851.8%
20344221,0638.2%37.9%$16,484,23210.0%
2035397,8173.6%41.5%$7,007,6074.3%
Thereafter5518,91019.2%60.6%$38,267,83123.3%
Vacant4306,14311.3%·$00.0%
TOTAL291,949,11871.9%·$111,808,06868.1%
Reporting studio

Turn this analysis into your next presentation.

Returns & sensitivity

Base. fixed entry $2382.3MM · equity $1085.1MM · debt $1310.3MM

IRR, levered7.7%10-year hold
Equity multiple1.92xdistributions / contributions
IRR, unlevered7.1%on the purchase price
Average cash-on-cash5.0%years 1-10
NPV at 11.00%($239.2MM)levered, on equity

at a fixed hypothetical entry of $2,382.3MM; concluded value $2.27B

Returns summaryA
MetricUnleveredLevered
Internal rate of return7.1%7.7%
Equity multiple1.77x1.92x
Net present value$10.3MM($239.2MM)
Capital at risk$2382.3MM$1085.1MM
Reversion at exit$2845.9MM$1535.6MM
Exit year and cap rateYr 10 · 5.75%Yr 10 · 5.75%
NPV, explainedBelow the 11.00% equity hurdle

Base case IRR: 7.7%. The 11.00% equity hurdle is an acquisition assumption, separate from the workbook's asset valuation discount rate.

PV of operating equity cash flows
$305.1MM
+ PV of sale proceeds after debt
$540.8MM
- Initial equity, including fee
$1085.1MM
= Equity NPV
($239.2MM)

Negative NPV measures the shortfall against the assumed equity hurdle; annual cash flows can still be positive. Purchase price and debt stay fixed.

Source: DCF net cash flows and net sale proceeds; acquisition-assumptions.json price, debt, origination fee and equity_discount_rate.

Sensitivity: exit cap × rent growthCentre cell is the live case; every cell is a full model re-run.B
two steps each way: five columns, three rows
−50 bp−25 bpBase+25 bp+50 bp
Rent growth +1%11.1%10.5%9.8%9.2%8.6%
Rent growth base9.2%8.4%7.7%7.1%6.4%
Rent growth −1%7.0%6.3%5.5%4.8%4.0%
−50 bp−25 bpBase+25 bp+50 bp
Rent growth +1%2.55x2.41x2.27x2.15x2.04x
Rent growth base2.17x2.04x1.92x1.81x1.71x
Rent growth −1%1.82x1.70x1.59x1.49x1.40x
−50 bp−25 bpBase+25 bp+50 bp
Rent growth +1%$11.1MM($44.3MM)($94.8MM)($141.2MM)($183.8MM)
Rent growth base($143.8MM)($193.7MM)($239.2MM)($281.0MM)($319.4MM)
Rent growth −1%($286.9MM)($331.7MM)($372.7MM)($410.3MM)($444.8MM)
Tornado: levered IRR swingAcquisition price, initial debt and equity are fixed across Base, Upside and Downside. Only post-acquisition cash flows and exit assumptions change.C
Rent growth±100 bp5.5% / 9.8%
Rent level±5%6.2% / 9.1%
Exit capitalisation rate±50 bp6.4% / 9.2%
Operating expenses±5%6.7% / 8.7%
-10.0%-5.0%0.0%7.7%
Base 7.7%Upside 10.5%Downside -9.1%
Levered IRR, Base case, one step each way

Upside. fixed entry $2382.3MM · equity $1085.1MM · debt $1310.3MM

IRR, levered10.5%10-year hold
Equity multiple2.39xdistributions / contributions
IRR, unlevered8.5%on the purchase price
Average cash-on-cash5.7%years 1-10
NPV at 11.00%($40.9MM)levered, on equity

at a fixed hypothetical entry of $2,382.3MM; concluded value $2.27B

Returns summaryA
MetricUnleveredLevered
Internal rate of return8.5%10.5%
Equity multiple1.98x2.39x
Net present value$286.0MM($40.9MM)
Capital at risk$2382.3MM$1085.1MM
Reversion at exit$3284.1MM$1973.8MM
Exit year and cap rateYr 10 · 5.25%Yr 10 · 5.25%
NPV, explainedBelow the 11.00% equity hurdle

Upside case IRR: 10.5%. The 11.00% equity hurdle is an acquisition assumption, separate from the workbook's asset valuation discount rate.

PV of operating equity cash flows
$349.1MM
+ PV of sale proceeds after debt
$695.1MM
- Initial equity, including fee
$1085.1MM
= Equity NPV
($40.9MM)

Negative NPV measures the shortfall against the assumed equity hurdle; annual cash flows can still be positive. Purchase price and debt stay fixed.

Source: DCF net cash flows and net sale proceeds; acquisition-assumptions.json price, debt, origination fee and equity_discount_rate.

Sensitivity: exit cap × rent growthCentre cell is the live case; every cell is a full model re-run.B
two steps each way: five columns, three rows
−50 bp−25 bpBase+25 bp+50 bp
Rent growth +1%13.8%13.1%12.4%11.8%11.1%
Rent growth base11.9%11.2%10.5%9.8%9.1%
Rent growth −1%10.0%9.2%8.4%7.7%7.0%
−50 bp−25 bpBase+25 bp+50 bp
Rent growth +1%3.15x2.96x2.79x2.64x2.50x
Rent growth base2.71x2.54x2.39x2.26x2.13x
Rent growth −1%2.31x2.16x2.02x1.90x1.79x
−50 bp−25 bpBase+25 bp+50 bp
Rent growth +1%$256.8MM$185.9MM$121.7MM$63.4MM$10.2MM
Rent growth base$80.9MM$16.9MM($40.9MM)($93.5MM)($141.5MM)
Rent growth −1%($81.6MM)($139.1MM)($191.1MM)($238.4MM)($281.6MM)
Tornado: levered IRR swingAcquisition price, initial debt and equity are fixed across Base, Upside and Downside. Only post-acquisition cash flows and exit assumptions change.C
Rent growth±100 bp8.4% / 12.4%
Exit capitalisation rate±50 bp9.1% / 11.9%
Rent level±5%9.2% / 11.7%
Operating expenses±5%9.6% / 11.4%
-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.5%
Base 7.7%Upside 10.5%Downside -9.1%
Levered IRR, Upside case, one step each way

Downside. fixed entry $2382.3MM · equity $1085.1MM · debt $1310.3MM

IRR, levered-9.1%10-year hold
Equity multiple0.46xdistributions / contributions
IRR, unlevered1.2%on the purchase price
Average cash-on-cash2.0%years 1-10
NPV at 11.00%($845.5MM)levered, on equity

at a fixed hypothetical entry of $2,382.3MM; concluded value $2.27B

Returns summaryA
MetricUnleveredLevered
Internal rate of return1.2%-9.1%
Equity multiple1.10x0.46x
Net present value($939.1MM)($845.5MM)
Capital at risk$2382.3MM$1085.1MM
Reversion at exit$1596.1MM$285.9MM
Exit year and cap rateYr 10 · 6.75%Yr 10 · 6.75%
NPV, explainedBelow the 11.00% equity hurdle

Downside case IRR: -9.1%. The 11.00% equity hurdle is an acquisition assumption, separate from the workbook's asset valuation discount rate.

PV of operating equity cash flows
$139.0MM
+ PV of sale proceeds after debt
$100.7MM
- Initial equity, including fee
$1085.1MM
= Equity NPV
($845.5MM)

Negative NPV measures the shortfall against the assumed equity hurdle; annual cash flows can still be positive. Purchase price and debt stay fixed.

Source: DCF net cash flows and net sale proceeds; acquisition-assumptions.json price, debt, origination fee and equity_discount_rate.

Sensitivity: exit cap × rent growthCentre cell is the live case; every cell is a full model re-run.B
two steps each way: five columns, three rows
−50 bp−25 bpBase+25 bp+50 bp
Rent growth +1%-2.0%-3.0%-4.0%-5.0%-6.1%
Rent growth base-6.3%-7.7%-9.1%-10.7%-12.5%
Rent growth −1%-12.8%-15.3%-18.4%-23.0%-35.8%
−50 bp−25 bpBase+25 bp+50 bp
Rent growth +1%0.84x0.77x0.71x0.65x0.59x
Rent growth base0.58x0.52x0.46x0.41x0.36x
Rent growth −1%0.34x0.29x0.24x0.19x0.15x
−50 bp−25 bpBase+25 bp+50 bp
Rent growth +1%($692.1MM)($718.5MM)($743.0MM)($765.7MM)($786.8MM)
Rent growth base($800.5MM)($823.8MM)($845.5MM)($865.5MM)($884.2MM)
Rent growth −1%($900.6MM)($921.2MM)($940.2MM)($957.9MM)($974.3MM)
Tornado: levered IRR swingAcquisition price, initial debt and equity are fixed across Base, Upside and Downside. Only post-acquisition cash flows and exit assumptions change.C
Rent growth±100 bp-18.4% / -4.0%
Rent level±5%-13.5% / -5.9%
Operating expenses±5%-12.6% / -6.4%
Exit capitalisation rate±50 bp-12.5% / -6.3%
-20.0%-15.0%-9.1%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%
Base 7.7%Upside 10.5%Downside -9.1%
Levered IRR, Downside case, one step each way
JV waterfallIllustrative · modelledD

Illustrative JV terms, modelled here from the DCF levered flows; the model has no waterfall sheet. Terms are levers, not facts.

LP IRR·on LP net cash flows
LP multiple·distributions / contributions
GP IRR·co-invest plus promote
Promote·share of total profit
Tier ladderBars are dollars through each tier; the widest band is 100%. Gold is the GP promote.
Distributions by yearyear 10 carries the exit
Catch-up
European, whole-fund, one assetHurdle test on LP net cash flows
FigureDerived from
Equity in, loanFinancials/acquisition-assumptions.json:price fixed purchase price $2382.3MM × LTV 55% = loan $1310.3MM; equity including origination fee $1085.1MM
Yearly distributableDCF (Base)!C74:L74 net cash flow less debt service $81.9MM (loan × 6.25%, interest only)
Exit proceedsDCF (Base) reversion in year 10 (row 76 total cash flow less row 74), which is net of selling costs DCF!C22 at 2.0%, less the loan repaid at par $1310.3MM
Origination fee1.00% of loan = $13.1MM, paid once at entry in the equity vector
Upside vectorthe Base vector re-run on this page at rent +5% and exit cap −50 bp, as the Upside pane
Downside vectorDCF (Down)!C74:L74 and row 76; fixed entry acquisition assumptions $2382.3MM, unchanged loan $1310.3MM and LTV 55%; only post-acquisition cash flows change
All tier outputsmodelled in page JS (wf_engine.js) from the rows above on the terms shown; terms illustrative

Property photographs6 photographs1 aerial2 exterior2 interior1 site

ExteriorFifth Avenue entrance and tower, 2024Photo: 颐园居. Empire State Building Exterior 20240521 · CC BY-SA 4.0. Resized to fit within 1000 pixels and converted to WebP; full composition retained.
ExteriorTower, day-to-night photographic triptychPhoto: John Cunniff. Empire State Building: Day into Night · CC BY 2.0. Resized to fit within 1000 pixels and converted to WebP; full composition retained.
AerialTower and Midtown from above, 2012Photo: Sam Valadi. Empire State Building (aerial view) · CC BY 2.0. Source cropped and slightly rotated; resized to fit 1200 pixels and converted to WebP; full source composition retained.
InteriorFifth Avenue lobby, New Year's Day 2020Photo: DanielPenfield. EmpireStateBuilding2019LobbyLookingWest · CC BY-SA 4.0. resized to fit 1200 pixels and converted to WebP; full source composition retained.
Interior86th-floor observatory interior, 2019Photo: James Petts. Empire State Building 86th floor · CC BY-SA 2.0. resized to fit 1200 pixels and converted to WebP; full source composition retained.
SiteSouth view from the observatory, 2020Photo: DanielPenfield. EmpireStateBuilding202086thFloorExteriorSouthSideLookingSouthZoomed · CC BY-SA 4.0. resized to fit 1200 pixels and converted to WebP; full source composition retained.
FrescoUnderwritingEmpire State Building · Underwriting as of 30 Jun 2026 · Built 9 Sep 2026 · Confidential
Fresco / Reporting studio

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